The topic of non-citizens voting in U.S. elections has been a contentious issue, especially following claims related to the 2016 election. A widely circulated claim suggested that 800,000 non-citizens voted in the 2016 election, representing 6.4% of the total non-citizen population in America at that time.
This claim originated from a 2014 study by Jesse Richman and David Earnest, which estimated that a small percentage of non-citizens had registered to vote and cast ballots in the 2008 and 2010 elections. However, this study has been heavily criticized by the academic community for its methodology and conclusions.
Many political scientists argue that the study’s results are unreliable due to significant flaws, such as small sample sizes and ambiguities in survey questions that could confuse respondents.
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Critics of the study point out that it does not provide a representative sample of non-citizens and that its findings have been broadly rejected by the scholarly community. In fact, following the increased attention to the study after its publication, over 200 political scientists signed a letter in 2017 stating that the study should not be used in debates over voter fraud due to its methodological weaknesses.
In July 2024, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that 62% of likely American voters were concerned about potential cheating affecting the 2024 election. This poll also found that more than 5% of voters claimed to be non-citizens, with an additional 4% unsure of their citizenship status. Notably, some of these non-citizens reported that they had voted in previous elections and planned to vote again in 2024.
Another Rasmussen study found that 3% of voters in the 2020 election were non-citizens who also plan to vote in the upcoming national election.
However, it’s essential to consider the context and potential biases of these polls and reports. Rasmussen Reports has often been criticized for its polling methodology and perceived partisan leanings, which could influence the interpretation and presentation of its findings. The issue of non-citizen voting is complex and heavily politicized, often used to argue for stricter voting laws and increased election security measures. Yet, empirical evidence from credible studies, like those conducted by the Brennan Center, suggests that the actual prevalence of non-citizen voting is minimal.
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In conclusion, while there are claims about non-citizen voting influencing U.S. elections, these claims often stem from contested studies and partisan sources. The reality, supported by more robust data and peer-reviewed research, indicates that non-citizen voting is extremely rare and unlikely to impact election outcomes significantly. The debate, however, continues to be a focal point in discussions about election integrity and voter fraud, reflecting broader political and ideological divides within the United States.
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